With the series against France secured, Scott Robertson is considering experimenting with team selections.
Robertson aims to give game time to fringe players as part of Project 4-4-4.
Injuries have opened opportunities for players such as Naitoa Ah Kuoi to potentially earn their first cap.
With the series against France secured, the temptation to see just how far Project 4-4-4 has progressed is going to be hard for the All Blacks coaching group to resist when picking their team for the last encounter in Hamilton.
There is always a risk-reward equation for internationalcoaches to weigh up, and if there was one significant regret held by head coach Scott Robertson about the way he went about things last year, it was his reticence to utilise experimental selection opportunities when they arose.
This is international rugby’s golden age, and the level of competitiveness has become such that the All Blacks are rarely afforded a soft fixture – or certainly, at least, there are few occasions in any given season when the coaches will feel like they can spin the selection wheel and blood the non-regulars en masse.
Probably now, it’s only Wales, Italy, Fiji and Japan of those countries the All Blacks regularly play who provide genuine opportunities for major selection risks.
The likes of Scotland, Argentina and Australia pose too great a threat to be treated as opponents against whom too many selection risks can be taken. Furthermore, because of the limited itinerary open to finding out about fringe players, Robertson has to be prepared to take a few more risks than any of his predecessors if he is to successfully pull off his project of having four test-quality players in each position by 2027 (four deep, over four years to win a fourth World Cup: 4-4-4).
He’s going to have to be astute at determining the real threat posed by each set of opponents and not necessarily pander to narratives that are overly and disingenuously respectful of teams that clearly don’t pose the same level of threat as top-tier opposition.
The French face the All Blacks haka in Wellington. Photo / Photosport
And this Saturday’s test against a French team who are spirited and resourceful, but ultimately one that have not been picked from the top shelf, has to be considered one in which an element of risk can be taken to give fringe players their moment in the sun.
Robertson has been clear that he wants everyone in the squad to have game time in this series, and so there will most likely be first outings this year for Tyrel Lomax, George Bower, Brodie McAlister, Luke Jacobson, Noah Hotham, Anton Lienert-Brown and Ruben Love.
Injuries to Scott Barrett and Tupou Vaa’i have most likely opened the door for Naitoa Ah Kuoi, drafted in as cover a few weeks ago, to win his first cap in Hamilton.
There are others in the squad, such as Samipeni Finau, Quinn Tupaea, Sevu Reece and Emoni Narawa, who, for various reasons, have had limited game time and who, for various reasons, need more.
And then there is the standalone case of Damian McKenzie who, if he is to continue to be a viable alternative or back-up to Beauden Barrett at first five-eighths, needs to be given time in the role.
The nub of the challenge for Robertson and his fellow coaching group is striking the right balance in ensuring the fringe contenders all get the opportunity they need to keep Project 4-4-4 on track. But they mustn’t get too cute and find themselves stung by a French team who may spring to life if they sense vulnerability within the All Blacks.
And seeing where they feel that balance lies will be fascinating as it will signal the level of trust they have in their fringe candidates and also their appetite to take selection risks in the name of Project 4-4-4.
As a prime example, a call has to be made about which of Cortez Ratima or Cam Roigard should share the workload with Hotham.
Are the All Blacks willing to go with their two least-experienced No 9s and start with Ratima, or will they play it safer and continue with Roigard and inject Hotham, depending on how things play out?
Anton Lienert-Brown has had very little rugby lately. Photo / Photosport
Similarly, if McKenzie is going to start at No 10 and potentially form a combination with his Chiefs midfield teammates Tupaea and Lienert-Brown, does that then kill the prospect of having Timoci Tavatavanawai on the bench?
Is that too much risk? Could they start Lienert-Brown (who hasn’t played in eight weeks because of a broken collar bone) and have Tavatavanawai (whose test experience stretches to all of 20 minutes) as cover?
These are great questions, as is the one regarding loosehead prop; which is whether the selectors will be willing to work with Bower and Ollie Norris, or feel they need to have the experience of Ethan de Groot in the mix.
